Premier League
The English Premier League kicks off today. It has the second highest revenue from media deals of any sports league in the world1) and about €800 million more revenue as a league than any of its European rivals.
This wealth has allowed the Premier League to attract many of the best players. The “Big Four” of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United have all appeared in the Champions League final in the past four years - Liverpool have twice. Last season’s final was competed by Chelsea and Manchester United. Liverpool made it to the semi-final. Due to the added income from the Champions League - Liverpool made around £18million; United over £30 million - it is hard to see the other teams bridging the gap. The teams in the UEFA cup barely make an extra £500,000. Of course, spending money wisely is possible and too often teams can waste millions on mediocre squad players.
An even bigger challenge faces the three promoted sides - all of whom will see their TV revenue increase by at least £30 million - to just stay up. The danger is that they blow the £30 million, increase their wage bill too much, and then get relegated. The other danger is that they won’t be brave enough to spend the money and will get relegated anyway.
Who will win?
In my opinion it is a two team race: Chelsea versus Manchester United. They have won the last four titles between them; United the last two. Both have invested heavily in their squad - United to secure Tevez for £32 million and Chelsea on a Bosingwa and Deco - this summer. Both have strength in depth. Manchester United are a more creative, free-flowing attacking side. Chelsea lack the flair of United, but have players like Lampard and Essien. They can also use their pacey full-backs to provide width. The defences are very strong - Chelsea probably having a slight edge when Cech and Terry are both fit and on form.
The difference from last season to this could be Essien playing in midfield rather than wasted at the back. He is a true engine for Chelsea and I am not sure United have that energy.
Who will go down?
The obvious candidates are Hull, Stoke and West Brom. The others are Bolton, Fulham and Wigan. I’ll reserve judgement until 2-3 games have passed. My guess is that Bolton will struggle again, Hull will probably struggle to score, and Stoke won’t have the quality.
Breaking the top four
The team most capable of spoiling the party is Tottenham Hotspur. They may have lost Defoe and Keane since the beginning of last season. They may lose Berbatov also. However, the defence looks much more solid (fitness permitting) and the midfield with Bentley and Modric should be pretty creative. The challenge must be to turn Darren Bent’s promise into the finished article, and to find a genuine target man in the next two weeks.
I think Everton, Aston Villa and Portsmouth all come up a little short, whilst Manchester City and Blackburn are really only mid-table side.
The North East
The North East now has four Premiership sides: Hull, Middlesbrough, Newcastle and Sunderland. This will be good for rivalries in the area. I think Middlesbrough may have a decent season now they’ve found some goals in Afonso Alves; whilst Newcastle’s season rests upon Keegan inspiration. Sunderland could push on and become the top side of the region. However, if Newcastle can sort their ownership out and provide Keegan with £20 million in January, then there could be a Toon revival in 2009.
Liverpool
My team. Unfortunately, the summer has not been good. I do not think the first team has really been improved and the squad certainly has not. Too much rests upon Gerrard. If Agger can stay fit then he may emerge as the best centre-half in the league, but there must be question marks if Liverpool can handle the big pressure games after last season. A strong season by Liverpool’s three Olympians (Babel, Leiva and Mascherano) is vital to challenge.
I can hardly wait for the season to start… and luckily I don’t have long.
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