Beijing Olympics

The Games of the XXIX Olympiad (twenty-ninth modern Olympics) opening ceremony commences at 08.08:08PM (in the timezone GMT+8) on 08/08/08. Eight is a fortuitous number in Chinese culture, because it sounds like the word for “prosper” or “wealth” (发; Pinyin: fā). The football competition actually starts tomorrow.

Beijing was selected to host the games and there has been controversy over this decision due to China’s human rights record. However, sport and politics is a dangerous mix and the Olympics has been tainted in the past. In Berlin in 1936 the Games were overshadowed by Nazism, but the German crowd applauded Jesse Owens’s achievement. In Munich 1972 there was the murder of 11 members of the Israel team by Fatah. Whilst Moscow in 1980 and Los Angeles in 1984 were both victims of mass boycotts.

Three countries will go into the Olympics hoping to finish top of the medal table:

1. People’s Republic of China
2. Russian Federation
3. United States of America

The Russian’s high expectations for the Beijing Olympics is likely to be dampened by the fact five Russian medal hopefuls are embroiled in a a doping scandal, that Maria Sharapova withdrew from the tennis due to a shoulder injury, and that two walkers and a cyclist have also been dropped from the Olympic team over drugs tests. However, with expectations of possibly 32 or even 40 gold medals Russia will still be chasing China and the United States all the way.

In 1992 the Unified Team (including Russia and 11 other ex-Soviet countries) came top of the medal table with 112 medals (45 gold, 38 silver, 29 bronze), whilst USA was second, Germany third, and China fourth. By 1996, Russia was competing by itself and only won 63 medals (third for the total number, but came second in the medal table). The USA won 101 medals (44 gold) on home soil. China picked up 50 and Germany 65.

In 2000’s Sydney games, Australia leapfrogged Germany to come fourth. China was now third with 59 medals (28 gold), whilst Russia won 32 events and picked up 88 medals. The USA had 37 wins and 92 medals. In Athens 2004, Russia came third in the medal table as it won less gold than China, 27 against 32, but it did pick up far more medals in total, 92 to 63. The USA had 36 golds and 102 medals.

Looking at the 2008 games objectively (and considering Chinese home uplift) then it seems possible the Chinese may collect around 80 medals, of which 35 could be gold. I think Russia is probably going to fall short of 35 golds, 25-30 would be a very good target - but Russia will probably collect more medals than China. The big question is can the USA get 35 or more golds to remain top dog? I think they will, just.

So how well will the Great British team do? Personally, I think we can win 6-7 golds in the cycling, and if we can somehow get 2-3 in the athletics, then there are chances in rowing and sailing to take us beyond 10 golds. The United Kingdom won 9 golds in 2004 and also collected 9 silvers and 12 bronze medals to finish tenth (just ahead of Cuba). The Olympic team in 2008 appears to be stronger than in 2004: Team GB will consist of 313 athletes from 20 sports, including 169 men and 144 women.

UK Sport has set an Olympic medal target. This is for 10-12 Golds, a minimum of 35 medals - but ideally for 41 medals.

Luciano Barro, an Italian official, goes further and projects that Britain will finish fourth. This would be quite some feat to finish above Germany, Japan, and Australia. However, he projects (based on data from the World Championships) that the UK can achieve 18 golds (and a total of 48 medals).

There will be about 200 other competing teams and obvious highlights will be the Caribbean fast men - Usafa Powell (Jamaica, 100 metres), Usain Bolt (Jamaica, 100/200 metres), and Dayron Robles (Cuba, 110 hurdles) - and the British cycling team (Chris Hoy, Victoria Pendleton, Bradley Wiggins et al). Michael Phelps’s bid for 8 golds (5 individual and 3 relays) is fitting and would be an amazing achievement. Whilst, we wonder just who will manage to complete the long distance events, especially the Marathon, in Beijing’s pollution and climate (hot and humid).

There are likely to be a lot of new world records set in the swimming thanks to Speedo’s LZR Racer full-body swimsuit. Records will probably go in many other events too - possibly the men’s sprints and sprint relays.

Mostly we wait to see who the heroes and villains will be. We hope the best man (or woman) wins, but also we hope that our own countrymen will spring a few surprises and win more medals. It promises to be fascinating.

• The Official Website of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games August 8-24, 2008
• Wikipedia page on the 2008 Summer Olympics
• Beijing Olympics travel advice
• Official Team GB Website for Beijing 2008 Olympic Games